Friday, 29 April 2016

Re: cheat_training_group Paddlesnake warning: Pete Morgan's

The best part in the For the Love movie is when Kyle Hull said, "it's great Class V read and run." 

Ashley McEwan

Calleva's Liquid Adventures 
301 229 0428

On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 2:06 PM, jonathan becker <jonathanbecke@gmail.com> wrote:
I would recommend just reading and running, level doe not matter.

On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 1:53 PM, eakinbikes <eakinbikes@gmail.com> wrote:
As past rain is not necessarily a good predictor of future rain, you can also use the NOAA AHPS predictions (based mostly on observed and predicted rainfall, estimated soil moisture, soil type, and temperature) and put the predicted levels into the Keelhaulers' page.

Cheat River at Parsons:
is functioning and reads about 4.6 for tomorrow at noon. That equates to 2.9 on the Albright bridge.

But, that is for the Albright Bridge 16 hours later, so if we look at the forecast for this evening, we get 4.8 at Parsons and 3.1' at Albright.

Actual rain may change things considerably and Parson is far from the only water source one needs to consider there as the Cheat has many important tributaries that may raise the level at Albright higher, perhaps even 3.5' (just a guess).

Cheers,
Mark



On Apr 29, 2016, at 1:41 PM, Xan Lovatt <Xlovatt@gmail.com> wrote:

Hi Todd,

Your right about the bridge calculation.  I should have subtracted 10, but for the sake of being in line with the gauge I elected not to. 

With regards to the rain variable:  I took an aggregate change of the Cheat gauge over the past 3.5 days.  As the weather has been somewhat constant according to my limited research I used the average change per hour over the past 3.5 days to calculate the trend. Averages as we all know are problematical but it's what I have to work with. I have attached my spreadsheet that's shows how things were calculated if your interested.

The trend for the watershed is on the rise. My revised estimation still low in my opinion. 

Avg Change 0.047692308
Revised estimation for rise (23 hours at trend) 1.096923077
Reading at Cheat Gage 13.8
Revised Reading at Cheat Gage (noon sat) 14.89692308
Revised Reading at Cheat Bridge for Todd 4.896923077


X

On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 12:45 PM, Todd Henry <whitewaterbum@gmail.com> wrote:
Thanks for the heads up Xan. I love it.  You are such a nerd.  I am am just as nerdy because I noticed a couple mistakes in your calculations.  I have been grading high school physics homework all day today.  All I am doing is looking for mistakes in calculations and Xan is my new target. 

First mistake is the most preferred reading for the Cheat level is the bridge gauge.  To get the bridge reading you must subtract 10 from the online reading. Second mistake is that you forgot a variable.  How much rain is going to be in the watershed between now and when we put-in.  Also, next time could you please show more of your work and units of measurement so I can give you partial credit?

So from your calculations I have come up.

14.42 ft. - 10 ft. = 4.42 ft. on the bridge

4.42 ft. + 15-45% chance of rain = ? 

Here is another Cheat predictor.  http://www.keelhauler.org/khcc/cheatcalc.htm.  I am not sure how accurate it is but it was developed by a NASA engineer. 

John Munell, over the years you have become the prediction master.  What do you think?

 


On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 12:16 PM, Xan Lovatt <xlovatt@gmail.com> wrote:
I pulled data from the Cheat gauge. And did some math for my own guess. Here are the predictions based on current water (gauge) trend and also the trend over the last few days.

X
AW
Current Cheat level 13.66
Current Cheat Trend 0.1
predicted level at put on (12 noon) 16.06
XL Guess
Current Cheat level 13.66
Current Cheat Trend (based on avg change last ten hours 0.768
predicted level at put on (12 noon) 14.428

On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 8:38 AM, JohnM <munnell13@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi, all...

Got a chance to run the Cheat on Sunday. A young lady got stuck briefly in the hole at Pete Morgan's. As she was trying to roll up in the run out, her paddle was suddenly snatched from her hands. The paddle just stood there, one blade in the air, until the ever-graceful Juliana O'Neill cruised by and plucked it out of the water with one hand, like Excalibur from the stone.

While it amuses me to think that a new age of chivalry is upon us  --- or perhaps that the Lady of the Lake just wants a sequel --- I think it more likely that a paddlesnake has taken up residence at Pete Morgan's. You veterans may remember a similar paddlesnake attack at one of the infamous "tricky" rapids a few years back, but  I haven't seen one on the Cheat since then. Sadly, we never did get that paddle back, may it rest in piece(s).

So make sure the set-up on your roll is good or you could be its next victim!


Enjoy! ;-)
JOHN

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<Cheat change.xlsx>

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