Parsons says 5.5' and rising but a comparison of current conditions with Parsons says there is lots of water coming in that Parsons doesn't account for. It looks like somewhere around 6 1/2' at race time, so expect an announcement moving the race to the narrows soon.
Work shown below:
USGS gauge for Albright, Friday May 6, 6:45 am EDT: 16.37' and rising
Results in Keehauler's calculation of 6.37' at Albright Bridge and rising with 8740 CFS and rising.
USGS gauge for Rowlesburg, Friday May 6, 6:00 am EDT: 9.1' and rising
Results in Keehauler's calculation of 6.4' at Albright Bridge 7 hours later (1:00 pm) and rising.
USGS gauge for Parsons, Friday May 6, 05:00 UTC (1:00 am EDT): 7.2'
Results in Keehauler's calculation of 5.5' at Albright Bridge 16 hours later and rising fast.
and
As for Saturday, AHPS currently predicts about 6' and falling at the Albright Bridge around noon pm EDT Saturday.
Cheers,
Mark
On May 5, 2016, at 10:20 PM, C. Mark Eakin <mark.eakin@mac.com> wrote:My current guess is 4.6' and rising at race start. I'll check again tomorrow morning to see how the rain and actual Parsons gauge look compared to what NOAA currently estimates. Caveat is that AHPS often overpredicts peaks but is pretty good on short-term forecasts. This also only considers Parsons and not peripheral tributaries.Work shown below:NOAA AHPS forecast for Parsons:Friday May 6, 06:00 UTC (2:00 am EDT): 6.3'Results in Keehauler's calculation of 4.6' at Albright Bridge 16 hours later.andAs for Saturday, AHPS currently predicts at peak of 6.8' tomorrow around 9:00 pm EDT. That means 5.1' at the Albright Bridge around 1:00 pm EDT Saturday.Cheers,Mark
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