I miss you guys.
Ill see ya'll this afternoon at the bottom of Upper Coliseum. Smile right for it the camera.
Dave Ritchie
Whoa! Over an inch of rain expected tomorrow in Albright. Any guesses on the level?
On May 2, 2016 11:40 AM, "John Munnell" <munnell13@gmail.com> wrote:----It's gonna be YUUGE. We may need a wall.
JOHN
On 5/2/2016 10:12 AM, Jennifer Sass wrote:
and in addition to Cheat predictions for friday, i'd be interested in LBS predictions for Saturday.....
-jen
--
On Mon, May 2, 2016 at 9:59 AM, Travis Vice <george.travis.vice@gmail.com> wrote:
Xan,
Care to redeem yourself and predict the level for the race?
My uneducated guess is 5.2 ft. Just a guess with the current level and a half of inch of rain falling on Thursday.
-Travis
On Apr 30, 2016 9:21 AM, <cchernov@comcast.net> wrote:--
Sorry could not make it today- training and starting work as a tour guide to see if I like it. It's got intense spring hours. Have fun everyone. Still unsure on race also due to a tour next Friday till noon or earlier. Will see. Have fun everyone. Miss being on the river with you all as this is a good group this year!
Carrie
From: "'Megan' via LAKS advanced" <upper_yough_training_group@googlegroups.com>
To: "upper yough training group" <upper_yough_training_group@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Friday, April 29, 2016 2:15:04 PM
Subject: Re: cheat_training_group Paddlesnake warning: Pete Morgan's
And, if we grade for grammar and spelling, Todd and Xan both fail. Math shmath. Grammer nerds unite.
From: Matt Chrestman <chrestme@gmail.com>
To: upper_yough_training_group@googlegroups.com
Sent: Friday, April 29, 2016 2:08 PM
Subject: Re: cheat_training_group Paddlesnake warning: Pete Morgan's
I take issue with Xan's use of 10 significant digits. Are we measuring bacteria too?
Hi Todd,
Your right about the bridge calculation. I should have subtracted 10, but for the sake of being in line with the gauge I elected not to.
With regards to the rain variable: I took an aggregate change of the Cheat gauge over the past 3.5 days. As the weather has been somewhat constant according to my limited research I used the average change per hour over the past 3.5 days to calculate the trend. Averages as we all know are problematical but it's what I have to work with. I have attached my spreadsheet that's shows how things were calculated if your interested.
The trend for the watershed is on the rise. My revised estimation still low in my opinion.
Avg Change 0.047692308 Revised estimation for rise (23 hours at trend) 1.096923077 Reading at Cheat Gage 13.8 Revised Reading at Cheat Gage (noon sat) 14.89692308 Revised Reading at Cheat Bridge for Todd 4.896923077
X
On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 12:45 PM, Todd Henry <whitewaterbum@gmail.com> wrote:
Thanks for the heads up Xan. I love it. You are such a nerd. I am am just as nerdy because I noticed a couple mistakes in your calculations. I have been grading high school physics homework all day today. All I am doing is looking for mistakes in calculations and Xan is my new target.
First mistake is the most preferred reading for the Cheat level is the bridge gauge. To get the bridge reading you must subtract 10 from the online reading. Second mistake is that you forgot a variable. How much rain is going to be in the watershed between now and when we put-in. Also, next time could you please show more of your work and units of measurement so I can give you partial credit?
So from your calculations I have come up.
14.42 ft. - 10 ft. = 4.42 ft. on the bridge
4.42 ft. + 15-45% chance of rain = ?
Here is another Cheat predictor. http://www.keelhauler.org/khcc/cheatcalc.htm. I am not sure how accurate it is but it was developed by a NASA engineer.
John Munell, over the years you have become the prediction master. What do you think?
On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 12:16 PM, Xan Lovatt <xlovatt@gmail.com> wrote:
I pulled data from the Cheat gauge. And did some math for my own guess. Here are the predictions based on current water (gauge) trend and also the trend over the last few days.
X
AW
Current Cheat level 13.66
Current Cheat Trend 0.1
predicted level at put on (12 noon) 16.06
XL Guess
Current Cheat level 13.66
Current Cheat Trend (based on avg change last ten hours 0.768
predicted level at put on (12 noon) 14.428
On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 8:38 AM, JohnM <munnell13@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi, all...
Got a chance to run the Cheat on Sunday. A young lady got stuck briefly in the hole at Pete Morgan's. As she was trying to roll up in the run out, her paddle was suddenly snatched from her hands. The paddle just stood there, one blade in the air, until the ever-graceful Juliana O'Neill cruised by and plucked it out of the water with one hand, like Excalibur from the stone.
While it amuses me to think that a new age of chivalry is upon us --- or perhaps that the Lady of the Lake just wants a sequel --- I think it more likely that a paddlesnake has taken up residence at Pete Morgan's. You veterans may remember a similar paddlesnake attack at one of the infamous "tricky" rapids a few years back, but I haven't seen one on the Cheat since then. Sadly, we never did get that paddle back, may it rest in piece(s).
So make sure the set-up on your roll is good or you could be its next victim!
Enjoy! ;-)JOHN--
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