On May 6, 2016, at 7:51 AM, Jennifer Sass <sass.jen@gmail.com> wrote:From Rick:
7:15am Cheat Canyon Race URGENT update
Here's the situation. Cheat River's headwaters are still increasing, but slowing. We estimate a possible peak bubble hitting at 1pm to 2pm, with an estimated flow of around 15,000cfs. This would put the Rt 26 gauge level somewhere between 9 to 10'. Guessing there. My gauge forecasting skills are rusty and it's still to early to call it accurately.
What can be called with accuracy is that the race going through the canyon isn't happening.
We do have contingency plans. Right now, we have an option of doing the race on the upstream Narrows section. But we still need some factors and conditions for this to be viable (levels, water dropping, etc..) The plan right now is to keep tracking the above situation and then make a call sometime early afternoon when we can better forecast conditions. If conditions aren't right, we would unfortunately have to do something we've never done in 21 years, cancel the race. It should go without saying, but the safety of all racers comes first. We can only do so much with safety.
Thank you
Rick Gusic
On Fri, May 6, 2016 at 7:18 AM, Patrick Murray <patrickcmurray@gmail.com> wrote:John,All you learned is there was poor data feeding into your prediction so you had a poor prediction and now we'll have to race the narrows once Rick wakes up and checks the gauge.
On Friday, May 6, 2016, John Munnell <munnell13@gmail.com> wrote:Bob...it's 5.8 now (7AM) and still going up. I could see a brief plateau at Albright, but there's still enough water upstream to keep it rising for a bit yet.
Then again , my prediction yesterday was COMPLETELY wrong...so perhaps I should be quiet? Guess I've still got a lot to learn about hydrology. I'll start on that after I finish my remediation course on meteorology, as I clearly don't yet understand weather forecasting either. ;-)
JOHN
On 5/6/2016 6:54 AM, Robert Pollock wrote:
Looks like 5.5 by race time.
On Thursday, May 5, 2016, C. Mark Eakin <mark.eakin@mac.com> wrote:
--My current guess is 4.6' and rising at race start. I'll check again tomorrow morning to see how the rain and actual Parsons gauge look compared to what NOAA currently estimates. Caveat is that AHPS often overpredicts peaks but is pretty good on short-term forecasts. This also only considers Parsons and not peripheral tributaries.--
Work shown below:NOAA AHPS forecast for Parsons:Friday May 6, 06:00 UTC (2:00 am EDT): 6.3'Results in Keehauler's calculation of 4.6' at Albright Bridge 16 hours later.
and
As for Saturday, AHPS currently predicts at peak of 6.8' tomorrow around 9:00 pm EDT. That means 5.1' at the Albright Bridge around 1:00 pm EDT Saturday.
Cheers,Mark
On May 5, 2016, at 5:59 PM, Mike Sawyer <michaelsawyer@gmail.com> wrote:
4.5 on Fri race. My guess. But it has to be watched. Of it's that or less, I'll probably take the cat for a pre race run to Coliseum. SYOTR
On Thu, May 5, 2016, 5:39 PM John Munnell <munnell13@gmail.com> wrote:
Just don't think it's going that high... but we'll see.
JOHN
On 5/5/2016 5:31 PM, Jennifer Sass wrote:
--
Cheat River Race Update (URGENT NEWS)
Central WV is getting hit this afternoon and the Cheat headwaters are starting to move higher. How high? As of 4pm, it now looks like the race level will be above 4' tomorrow. It could very easily go much higher if the rain continues.
What does this mean for the race? The highest the race has ever seen is 5 1/4'. If levels go off higher, we 'might' have to make alternate race plans (ie, Narrows). So that said, we would like to urge all racers to please check the various Race Facebook pages & FOC Website for updates. PLEASE check things before running your shuttle on Friday. I can't stress this enough. Check. If you have questions, call/text me at 412-657-3944.
Please also take the above info into consideration with your own abilities. As the Cheat Canyon moves over 5', (6,300cfs), any swims or mishaps will have serious repercussions. While we are currently loading up on extra safety rafts and boats, you alone are the best judge of your skills. We can't protect you out there.
Last but not least. I would like to ask everyone to use the powers of the internet, texting, smoke signals or whatever else you have to get this message out to anyone and everyone. Please pass this along. We have backup plans for every possible scenario, but will require good communication and help from the racing community.
Sincerely,
Rick
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Friday 6 May 2016
Re: cheat_training_group from from Rick Gusic re Cheat River Race
So, some of us (me included) have never done the Narrows. That means a read-and-run race. If the race is still on, is there anything we should know other than avoid Calamity Rock (which we won't know how to identify in advance)?
What will the start and finish be?
Thanks,
Mark
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