Friday 29 April 2016

Re: cheat_training_group Paddlesnake warning: Pete Morgan's

Thanks for the heads up Xan. I love it.  You are such a nerd.  I am am just as nerdy because I noticed a couple mistakes in your calculations.  I have been grading high school physics homework all day today.  All I am doing is looking for mistakes in calculations and Xan is my new target. 

First mistake is the most preferred reading for the Cheat level is the bridge gauge.  To get the bridge reading you must subtract 10 from the online reading. Second mistake is that you forgot a variable.  How much rain is going to be in the watershed between now and when we put-in.  Also, next time could you please show more of your work and units of measurement so I can give you partial credit?

So from your calculations I have come up.

14.42 ft. - 10 ft. = 4.42 ft. on the bridge

4.42 ft. + 15-45% chance of rain = ? 

Here is another Cheat predictor.  http://www.keelhauler.org/khcc/cheatcalc.htm.  I am not sure how accurate it is but it was developed by a NASA engineer. 

John Munell, over the years you have become the prediction master.  What do you think?

 


On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 12:16 PM, Xan Lovatt <xlovatt@gmail.com> wrote:
I pulled data from the Cheat gauge. And did some math for my own guess. Here are the predictions based on current water (gauge) trend and also the trend over the last few days.

X
AW
Current Cheat level 13.66
Current Cheat Trend 0.1
predicted level at put on (12 noon) 16.06
XL Guess
Current Cheat level 13.66
Current Cheat Trend (based on avg change last ten hours 0.768
predicted level at put on (12 noon) 14.428

On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 8:38 AM, JohnM <munnell13@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi, all...

Got a chance to run the Cheat on Sunday. A young lady got stuck briefly in the hole at Pete Morgan's. As she was trying to roll up in the run out, her paddle was suddenly snatched from her hands. The paddle just stood there, one blade in the air, until the ever-graceful Juliana O'Neill cruised by and plucked it out of the water with one hand, like Excalibur from the stone.

While it amuses me to think that a new age of chivalry is upon us  --- or perhaps that the Lady of the Lake just wants a sequel --- I think it more likely that a paddlesnake has taken up residence at Pete Morgan's. You veterans may remember a similar paddlesnake attack at one of the infamous "tricky" rapids a few years back, but  I haven't seen one on the Cheat since then. Sadly, we never did get that paddle back, may it rest in piece(s).

So make sure the set-up on your roll is good or you could be its next victim!


Enjoy! ;-)
JOHN

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