Geez...I try to have a little fun and it turns into Math Hell! :-)
Todd is correct in suggesting that the Keelhauler's page is useful. I've sent Mr. Kobak many an observation over the years to help him calibrate it, as have many others. Based on the current predictions, that calculator says just around 3.0 ft on the bridge tomorrow as a prediction.
Todd is also right in suggesting that we include projected rainfall in the calculation. Indeed, it is useful to look at past and future forecasts. Scroll down the NOAA/NWS gauge page to the hydrological resources section for that information. In this case, you will learn that they got more than 3/4 inch over the last day in the basin, much of it very local. However, there is only a trace predicted when I last looked. The local rain has brought the levels up faster than might be expected --- the same thing that happened to y'all last Saturday.
My prediction? I think there is enough water upstream to sustain something near to current levels, but I don't expect it to go much higher. In the vicinity of 3.5 ft or below on the bridge seems a safe guess.
Lastly, Todd is wrong in giving Xan a hard time about the bridge versus the gauge. You didn't think I was going to give Todd credit for being right about everything, did you? :-) The bridge and the gauge are effectively measuring the same thing in the same spot --- just using a different scale. But there is a conversion factor, of course. Simple math is 10ft of difference, gauge over bridge. Over time, I have come to think the conversion is closer to 10.1ft... for those out there who love decimal points.
Of course, the REAL truth is that Tom would tell us we're ALL wrong. According to him, CFS is a much better way to talk about levels. Ask him to explain it to you the next time you need a nap. ;-)
Short version --- you're going to have water tomorrow. Enjoy!
JOHN
Thanks for the heads up Xan. I love it. You are such a nerd. I am am just as nerdy because I noticed a couple mistakes in your calculations. I have been grading high school physics homework all day today. All I am doing is looking for mistakes in calculations and Xan is my new target.
First mistake is the most preferred reading for the Cheat level is the bridge gauge. To get the bridge reading you must subtract 10 from the online reading. Second mistake is that you forgot a variable. How much rain is going to be in the watershed between now and when we put-in. Also, next time could you please show more of your work and units of measurement so I can give you partial credit?
So from your calculations I have come up.
14.42 ft. - 10 ft. = 4.42 ft. on the bridge
4.42 ft. + 15-45% chance of rain = ?
Here is another Cheat predictor. http://www.keelhauler.org/khcc/cheatcalc.htm. I am not sure how accurate it is but it was developed by a NASA engineer.
John Munell, over the years you have become the prediction master. What do you think?
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On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 12:16 PM, Xan Lovatt <xlovatt@gmail.com> wrote:
I pulled data from the Cheat gauge. And did some math for my own guess. Here are the predictions based on current water (gauge) trend and also the trend over the last few days.
X
AW
Current Cheat level 13.66
Current Cheat Trend 0.1
predicted level at put on (12 noon) 16.06
XL Guess
Current Cheat level 13.66
Current Cheat Trend (based on avg change last ten hours 0.768
predicted level at put on (12 noon) 14.428
--
On Fri, Apr 29, 2016 at 8:38 AM, JohnM <munnell13@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi, all...--
Got a chance to run the Cheat on Sunday. A young lady got stuck briefly in the hole at Pete Morgan's. As she was trying to roll up in the run out, her paddle was suddenly snatched from her hands. The paddle just stood there, one blade in the air, until the ever-graceful Juliana O'Neill cruised by and plucked it out of the water with one hand, like Excalibur from the stone.
While it amuses me to think that a new age of chivalry is upon us --- or perhaps that the Lady of the Lake just wants a sequel --- I think it more likely that a paddlesnake has taken up residence at Pete Morgan's. You veterans may remember a similar paddlesnake attack at one of the infamous "tricky" rapids a few years back, but I haven't seen one on the Cheat since then. Sadly, we never did get that paddle back, may it rest in piece(s).
So make sure the set-up on your roll is good or you could be its next victim!
Enjoy! ;-)JOHN
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